An interesting historical puzzle exists in the divergent paths of quantum computing (QC) and molecular nanotechnology (MNT). Both fields emerged in the 1980s, building on Feynman’s earlier insights. Initially, both seemed similarly positioned for success: they were revolutionary but somewhat abstract concepts that attracted limited research and funding in their first decade. The conventional narrative from MNT proponents focuses on how increased public visibility (via Drexler’s popular writing) and the Clinton administration’s nanotech initiative paradoxically hurt the field, especially when combined with Smalley’s prominent criticisms. However, this explanation seems insufficient. Several key factors appear to have differentiated QC’s trajectory:
The discovery of Shor’s algorithm in 1994 provided a concrete, high-value application that immediately attracted serious attention from organizations like the NSA. As noted by physicist Gerard Milburn at the time: “quantum computing is going to matter now.” This breakthrough incentivized top experimental labs to pursue proof-of-principle demonstrations, establishing a clear pathway for incremental progress. When faced with fundamental critiques from Landauer and Unruh, the QC community responded with novel theoretical insights about quantum mechanics. This generated extensive academic engagement and produced robust rebuttals. Landauer himself later acknowledged this progress, noting that “Quantum computing is 20 years closer today than it was a year ago.” The MNT field’s response to Smalley’s criticisms was comparatively less innovative. MNT continued to lack both concrete intermediate milestones and a specific high-value application that would motivate major institutional investment.
Interestingly, much of physics, chemistry, and biology research over the past 40 years has effectively advanced molecular nanotechnology capabilities through bottom-up approaches - improving control and sensing at the molecular level step by step. This incremental progress has been remarkably successful, potentially positioning MNT (or related capabilities) as a more feasible top-down goal today than in previous decades.