https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/i6doyTk6kHkGyKybq/covid-1-7-the-fire-of-a-thousand-suns
That was both the very bad outcome for infections I was worried about, and also not high on my list of things to be concerned or furious about this week.
For deaths, my estimate was lower than it should have been and I should have assumed a full reversion, so on reflection it’s my mistake rather than especially bad news.
The new strain is not yet prevalent enough to be noticeably impacting the numbers.
Prediction: 17.0% positive rate on 9.5 million tests, and an average of 2,800 deaths. The holidays are over, there will be some fallout, with things getting slightly worse, but with the main boost in deaths from Christmas mostly coming later.
In retrospect the only thing that could’ve worked is test and trace like south korea did, but does the USA have the stomach for such invasions of privacy ?